Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets

The sports betting market has emerged as one of the most lucrative markets in recent years. Trading in sports betting markets entails predicting odd movements in order to bet on an outcome, whilst also betting on the opposite outcome, at different odds in order to make a profit, regardless of the final result. These markets are mainly composed by humans, which take decisions according to their past experience in these markets. However, human rational reasoning is limited when taking quick decisions, being influenced by emotional factors and offering limited calibration capabilities for estimating probabilities. In this paper, we show how artificial techniques could be applied to this field and demonstrate that they can outperform even the bevahior of high-experienced humans. To achieve this goal, we propose a case-based reasoning model for trading in sports betting markets, which is integrated in an agent to provide it with the capabilities to take trading decisions based on future odd predictions. In order to test the performance of the system, we compare trading decisions taken by the agent with trading decisions taken by human traders when they compete in real sports betting markets.This work has been partially supported by CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010 under grant CSD2007-00022, and project TIN2011-27652-C03-01. Juan M. Alberola has received a grant from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion de Espana (AP2007-00289).Alberola Oltra, JM.; García Fornes, AM. (2013). Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets. Applied Intelligence. 38(3):465-477. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-012-0381-9S465477383Aamodt A (1990) Knowledge-intensive case-based reasoning and sustained learning. In: Topics in case-based reasoning. Springer, Berlin, pp 274–288Aamodt A, Plaza E (1994) Case-based reasoning; foundational issues, methodological variations, and system approaches. AI Commun 7(1):39–59Ahn JJ, Byun HW, Oh KJ, Kim TY (2012) Bayesian forecaster using class-based optimization. Appl Intell 36(3):553–563Alberola JM, Garcia-Fornes A, Espinosa A (2010) Price prediction in sports betting markets. In: Proceedings of the 8th German conference on multiagent system technologies, pp 197–208Arias-Aranda D, Castro JL, Navarro M, Zurita JM (2009) A cbr system for knowing the relationship between flexibility and operations strategy. In: Proceedings of the 18th international symposium on foundations of intelligent systems, ISMIS’09, pp 463–472Ates C (2004) Prediction markets are only human: subadditivity in probability judgments. In: MSC in finance and international businessBerlemann M, Schmidt C (2001) Predictive accuracy of political stock markets—empirical evidence from a European perspective. 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Feedback Efectivo en Prácticas de Programación

Las asignaturas de carácter práctico como la programación, presentan históricamente un alto índice de abandonos y unas tastas de aprobados bajas. Una característica de estas asignaturas es que el material que se aprende, necesita ser afianzado para aprender nuevos conceptos, por lo tanto, un feedback progresivo y continuo es esencial para la motivación de los alumnos. En este artículo, presentamos una experiencia docente que obtiene dicho feedback mediante el uso de la plataforma educativa. El impacto a diferentes niveles de esta experiencia es analizado en un grupo de alumnos.Alberola Oltra, JM.; García Fornes, AM. (2013). Feedback Efectivo en Prácticas de Programación. VAEP-RITA. Versión Abierta Español-Portugués. 1(2):88-96. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/60536S88961

Analyzing the effect of gain time on soft task scheduling policies in real-time systems

In hard real-time systems, gain time is defined as the difference between the Worst Case Execution Time (WCET) of a hard task and its actual processor consumption at runtime. This paper presents the results of an empirical study about how the presence of a significant amount of gain time in a hard real-time system questions the advantages of using the most representative scheduling algorithms or policies for aperiodic or soft tasks in fixed-priority preemptive systems. The work presented here refines and complements many other studies in this research area in which such policies have been introduced and compared. This work has been performed by using the authors' testing framework for soft scheduling policies, which produces actual, synthetic, randomly generated applications, executes them in an instrumented Real-Time Operating System (RTOS), and finally processes this information to obtain several statistical outcomes. The results show that, in general, the presence of a significant amount of gain time reduces the performance benefit of the scheduling policies under study when compared to serving the soft tasks in background, which is considered the theoretical worst case. In some cases, this performance benefit is so small that the use of a specific scheduling policy for soft tasks is questionable. © 2012 IEEE.This work is partially funded by research projects PROMETEO/2008/051, CSD2007-022, and TIN2008-04446.Búrdalo Rapa, LA.; Terrasa Barrena, AM.; Espinosa Minguet, AR.; García Fornes, AM. (2012). Analyzing the effect of gain time on soft task scheduling policies in real-time systems. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering. 38(6):1305-1318. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSE.2011.95S1305131838

Supporting Dynamicity in Emergency Response Applications

[EN] Multiagent Systems are a promising paradigm for software development. It is feasible to model such systems with many components where each one can solve a specific problem. This division of responsibilities allows multiagent systems to work in dynamically changing environments. An example of an environment that is very changeable is related with emergencies management. Emergency management systems depend on the cooperation of all their components due to their specialization. In order to obtain this cooperation, the components need to interact with each other and adapt their interactions depending on their purpose and the system components they are interacting with. Also, new components may arrive on the scene, which must be informed about the interaction policies that original components are using. Although Multiagent Systems are suited to managing scenarios of this kind, their effectiveness depends on their capacity to dynamically modify and adapt the protocols that control the interactions among agents in the system. In this paper, an infrastructure to support dynamically changing interaction protocols is presented.This work has been partially supported by CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010 under grant CSD2007-00022, and project TIN2008-04446.López Fogués, R.; Such Aparicio, JM.; Alberola Oltra, JM.; Espinosa Minguet, AR.; García Fornes, AM. (2014). Supporting Dynamicity in Emergency Response Applications. Computing and Informatics. 33(6):1288-1311. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/50972S1288131133

An Active Learning Technique Enhanced with Electronic Polls

Only very few students answer questions like: Did you understand this? , Do you have any questions? etc. In this paper, we present an active learning technique that is based on the think-pair-share technique improved with the introduction of electronic polls to obtain anonymous instant feedback from the students. Electronic polls have been usually performed using Classroom Response Systems, but these systems introduce several problems related to the excessive cost of the systems and the technical problems that they may cause to the instructors. Thus, we have implemented our active learning technique using an Interaction System that provides the benefits of supporting electronic polls but avoids the problems of Classroom Response Systems. We also present an example of how we applied our proposal to a set of Operating System lectures. Finally, we evaluate our proposal and demonstrate that the results we obtain are very similar to the ones obtained in the existing CRS literature without the problems that they introduce.Such, JM.; Criado, N.; García Fornes, AM. (2015). An Active Learning Technique Enhanced with Electronic Polls. International Journal of Engineering Education. 31(4):1048-1057. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/60532S1048105731

Using cost-aware transitions for reorganizing multiagent systems

Current approaches for reorganization in Multiagent Systems are mainly focused on providing solutions that maximize the organization utility but that do not include an in-depth evaluation of the reorganization impact in terms of costs. Reorganization requires determining the consequences of applying changes not only in terms of the benefits provided, but also measuring the reorganization costs as well as indirect impact that these changes have on in all the components of the organization. In this paper we present an infrastructure for reorganization based on transitions, which is focused on obtaining the transition with the highest potential for improvement in utility based on the transition costs. The approach provides an accurate measurement of the transition impact, since it determines the organization that is to be transition to as well as the changes required to carry out this transition. We show an example based on a tourist application in order to demonstrate that the measurement of the transition impacts taken by the service improve the organization performance. We also provide a performance evaluation of the service proposed and an example of a transition execution. & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.We acknowledge ITMAS 2011 as the forum in which the main ideas behind this paper were preliminary discussed. This work has been partially supported by the projects TIN2011-27652-C03-01 and TIN2009-13839-C03-01. Juan M. Alberola has received a Grant from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion de Espana (AP2007-00289).Alberola Oltra, JM.; Julian Inglada, VJ.; García Fornes, AM. (2013). Using cost-aware transitions for reorganizing multiagent systems. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence. 26(1):63-75. doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2012.09.007S637526

Education in the knowledge society : EKS

Resumen basado en el de la publicaciónTítulo, resumen y palabras clave también en inglésSe presenta el desarrollo de una aplicación de red social de acceso restringido, llamada Pesedia, que permite educar a niños y adolescentes sobre los riesgos de las redes sociales y además fomentar el cambio de actitud hacia un uso responsable y adecuado de la privacidad en las redes sociales. Utilizando esta red social, se ha realizado una experiencia con 134 niños de entre 12 y 14 años, en el marco de la Escola d’Estiu 2016 (Escuela de Verano) de la Universitat Politècnica de València. Mediante un conjunto de juegos propuestos, los niños y adolescentes interactúan en Pesedia y aprenden a detectar acciones de riesgo que, de llevarse a cabo en una red social pública, podrían comprometer su privacidad. Con dichos juegos se les conciencia, entre otros aspectos, sobre los peligros de la exposición pública de los datos, del etiquetado y geoposicionamiento de las fotos, la descontextualización de las conversaciones, así como las repercusiones futuras de nuestra huella digital. Se muestra las características de esta red social, los talleres desarrollados y los principales resultados de esta experiencia.ES

Proceedings of The Third International Workshop on Iinfraestructures and tools for multiagent systems : ITMAS 2012

El taller "Infrastructures and Tools for Multiagent Systems (ITMAS2012)" es un foro de ámbito internacional que actúa como punto de encuentro para especialistas del mundo académico y de la industria que se dedican a trabajar en infraestructuras y herramientas para el diseño, desarrollo, ejecución, gestión, y evaluación de aplicaciones basadas en Sistemas Multiagente. Estas infraestructuras y herramientas juegan un papel fundamental para aplicar las tecnologías de Agentes y Sistemas Multiagente a problemas del mundo real. De hecho, el éxito que puedan llegar a tener las tecnologías de Agentes y Sistemas Multiagente depende en gran medida de que se desarrollen infraestructuras y herramientas que soporten su implementación.ITMAS workshop aims at bringing together leading researchers from both academia and industry to discuss issues on the design and implementation of infrastructures and tools for Multiagent Systems. This includes research on supporting essential features in Multiagent Systems (such as agent organizations, mobility, etc.) and facilitate the system design, management, execution and evaluation. Moreover, in order for Multiagent Systems to be included in real domains such as media and Internet, logistics, e-commerce and health care, infrastructures and tools for Multiagent Systems should provide efficiency, scalability, security, management, monitorization and other features related to building real applicationsBotti Navarro, VJ.; Ricci, A.; García Fornes, AM.; Weyns, D.; Such, JM.; Alberola, JM.; Pechoucek, M. (2012). Proceedings of The Third International Workshop on Iinfraestructures and tools for multiagent systems : ITMAS 2012. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/16889Archivo delegad

CONCURRÈNCIA I SISTEMES DISTRIBUÏTS

Aquest llibre proporciona una visió integradora de les aplicacions concurrents i els sistemes distribuïts, descrivint els seus fonaments, tècniques i mètodes més rellevants. També inclou exemples de programes concurrents en llenguatge Java. Així mateix, s'analitzen els mecanismes de sincronització per a sistemes de temps real i s'ofereix una primera aproximació a les tasques d'administració de sistemes (necessàries en sistemes distribuïts).García Fornes, AM.; Espinosa Minguet, AR.; Galdamez Saiz, P.; Argente Villaplana, E.; Sendra Roig, JS.; Muñoz Escoí, FD.; Juan Marín, RD. (2013). CONCURRÈNCIA I SISTEMES DISTRIBUÏTS. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/71992EDITORIA

CONCURRENCIA Y SISTEMAS DISTRIBUIDOS

Este libro proporciona una visión integradora de las aplicaciones concurrentes y los sistemas distribuidos, describiendo sus fundamentos, técnicas y métodos más relevantes. Incluye también ejemplos de programas concurrentes en lenguaje Java. Asimismo, se analizan los mecanismos de sincronización para sistemas de tiempo real y se ofrece una primera aproximación a las tareas de administración de sistemas (necesarias en sistemas distribuidos).Muñoz Escoí, FD.; Argente Villaplana, E.; Espinosa Minguet, AR.; Galdamez Saiz, P.; García Fornes, AM.; Juan Marín, RD.; Sendra Roig, JS. (2013). CONCURRENCIA Y SISTEMAS DISTRIBUIDOS. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/70991EDITORIA